2024 Trends: How Property & Casualty Insurance Rates Are Expected to Change


By: Susan E. Cash, Vice President, Property & Casualty; The Miller Group, and Tanner McElroy, Vice President, Property & Casualty – Construction; The Miller Group


The property and casualty insurance sector, also referred to as commercial insurance, has faced challenging conditions in recent years due to various factors like increased claims, social inflation, cyber threats and natural disasters. While some lines of coverage have shown improvement, others have experienced profitability issues and rate increases, as discussed in The Miller Group’s Property & Casualty 2024 Trends ebook.

The insurance landscape is expected to remain challenging with ongoing impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events. However, businesses can navigate these challenges by being proactive with their safety/cyber security initiatives, insurance, and risk management, while also securing adequate coverage.

Commercial property CAT-free: +5% to +15%

CAT-exposed: +15% to +25%

General liability Overall: +1% to +10%
Commercial auto Overall: +5% to +30%
Workers’ compensation Overall: -5% to +2%
Cyber Overall: 0% to +15%
D&O Private and nonprofit companies: 0% to +5%

Public companies: -10% to +5%

EPL Overall: 0% to +10%
Price forecasts are based on industry reports and Zywave surveys for individual lines of insurance. Forecasts are subject to change and are not a guarantee of premium rates. These forecasts should be viewed as general information, not insurance or legal advice.


Commercial Property Insurance

The commercial property insurance market has faced rising premiums since 2017. Unfavorable conditions are primarily the result of another intense season of natural disasters, inflation issues and an increasingly volatile property valuation landscape. Losses stemming from these trends have forced commercial property insurance carriers to continue elevating most policyholders’ premiums, introducing more restrictive coverage terms.

Looking ahead, companies who conduct high-risk operations, have poor property management practices or are located in natural disaster-prone areas will likely remain susceptible to ongoing rate hikes and coverage limitations.

General Liability Insurance

With general liability claims increasing in frequency and severity, companies are faced with tougher conditions, including rate increases, stricter underwriting standards and limited capacity. While there were some improved underwriting results in 2022-23, trends such as rising litigation, increasing medical expenses and risks related to PFAS still pose threats.

Policyholders can expect modest premium increases in 2024, with higher liability risk sectors facing larger rate hikes and coverage challenges.

Commercial Auto Insurance

The commercial auto insurance market has faced hardening conditions for much of the past decade, as evidenced by plummeting profitability for insurance carriers and continued rate hikes.

Various factors have led to poor market conditions, including widespread driver shortages, nuclear verdict concerns and inflation issues. Considering these developments, most insureds can expect ongoing premium hikes in 2024. Companies with large fleets or poor loss history may face double-digit rate jumps and possible coverage restrictions.

Workers’ Compensation Insurance

The workers’ compensation insurance segment has experienced profitable underwriting results for almost a decade, with a combined ratio of 0.87 in 2022. However, the increased cost of medical care and increased market competition may impact profits in 2024. Policyholders can generally expect flat premiums or modest rate reductions, while those with higher risks may face increased pricing.

Cyber Insurance

The increasing frequency and severity of cyber incidents, driven by evolving technology and growing sophistication from attackers, have led to a rise in cyber insurance claims and underwriting losses. As a result, most policyholders have experienced continued premium hikes.

On the other hand, industry research shows that in 2023, more than half of insurance brokers and agents reported their clients’ cyber insurance premiums either declined, remained flat or increased by less than 10%.

Market conditions are expected to continue softening in 2024, but this segment reacts quickly to changes, making pricing predictions challenging. Businesses will continue facing coverage restrictions and increased scrutiny of their cybersecurity practices from underwriters. Businesses with strong cybersecurity and understanding of the threat landscape will navigate the market best, while those without proper protocols or who experience a cyber attack may face ongoing premium hikes and coverage restrictions.

Directors & Officers (D&O) Liability Insurance

Although the D&O segment has started to stabilize for private and nonprofit companies, these organizations are still deemed as higher risk by carriers than their publicly traded counterparts. As such, rates for these policyholders have continued to increase but at a slower pace than in previous years.

Heading into 2024, industry experts anticipate that favorable market conditions will persist, allowing for slowing premium rises and larger capacity. However, research also confirmed that more than 79% of D&O underwriters believe segment risks are still increasing.

Even as overall conditions improve, companies operating within challenging industries, possessing poor loss history or lacking sufficient risk management measures could remain susceptible to possible rate jumps and coverage difficulties.

Employment Practices Liability (EPL) Insurance

Amid challenging market conditions, most EPL policyholders have experienced ongoing rate jumps, underwriting scrutiny and limited capacity over the last several years. Fortunately, these conditions have slightly cooled in the past year, allowing for rates to slow.

According to industry data, most companies with good claims history encountered slight premium hikes ranging between 3% and 7% in 2023. Most can expect another year of modest rate increases going forward; yet policyholders with poor loss history or who operate in certain states and industries may continue to face substantial rate hikes.

Take Charge of What You Can Control

As an insurance buyer, it is important to know how your premiums are calculated, what trends influence the market and what you can do to get the best price.

One aspect that you have control over is your claims history, which has a significant impact on whether your rates increase or decrease. By implementing a robust risk management plan, you can steer your pricing in a more favorable direction, both in the present and during future renewal periods.

Download The Miller Group’s Property & Casualty 2024 Trends eBook to discover more details about the factors influencing the coverages above, along with proactive tips on how you can secure the best coverage at the best rates.


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